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When Should Founders Quit? Carta Data on Early-Stage Survival
Peter Walker from Carta analyzed 12,731 startups that last raised a Seed or Series A round. The data shows how many are still active on Carta, depending on when they last raised, raising questions about how long founders should push before reassessing.
2025 – 2023 Still on Track: Startups that raised between 2023 and 2025 remain largely active, with more than 500 companies per quarter still live on Carta.
2022 Entering Uncertainty: For companies that last raised in 2022, 3.5 years have now passed. Survival numbers are still solid, but questions arise on whether new capital or a pivot is overdue.
2021 and Earlier, Stagnation Risk: By 2021, 1,276 companies are technically still alive, but many have been waiting 4.5 years or longer since their last raise. From 2020 and before, survival falls to a few hundred companies per year, with many likely stuck or failing quietly.
✈️ KEY TAKEAWAYS
The data suggests that if startups have not found traction or raised again within 3–4 years, their chances of breaking out decline sharply. Persistence is important, but founders may need to distinguish between real progress and being stuck in place.
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