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Welcome to another Data Driven VC “Insights” episode where we cover the most interesting startup research & reports from the past week.
The State of VC & Why the Last 3 Years Break Out
John Rikhtegar examines whether the last three years represent more than a normal venture downturn by testing a long-standing relationship between public markets and VC fundraising. His analysis shows that recent data deviates sharply from historical patterns that held for decades.
1995-2025 Regression with R² ~0.75: The article analyzes North American VC fundraising from 1995 to 2025 using prior-year fundraising and NASDAQ total returns as inputs. Historically, this simple model explained about 75% of annual fundraising outcomes.
NASDAQ +43.4%, +28.6%, +19.2% YTD vs VC Decline: Despite one of the strongest public-market stretches in decades, venture fundraising has continued to fall well below model predictions. The gap represents the largest and most persistent negative deviation in the full dataset, exceeding the dot-com crash and 2008 crisis.
3 Structural Explanations for the Divergence: Rikhtegar points to capital formation decoupling from risk appetite, liquidity constraints from weak DPI, and rising survivorship pressure on GPs. Together, these factors suggest a structural shift rather than a cyclical pause.
✈️ KEY TAKEAWAYS
The analysis suggests that venture fundraising is no longer reliably anchored to public market performance, signaling a structural reset where liquidity, selectivity, and credible paths to exits matter more than historical fundraising playbooks.
Lean Is the New Cool in Startup Hiring
This post by Peter Walker reflects on how startup status has shifted from headcount growth to operational efficiency. It combines commentary on contractors, early hiring choices, and recent Carta data to illustrate how founders are building teams today.
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