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Welcome to another Data Driven VC “Insights” episode where we cover the most interesting research & reports about startups and VC from the past week.
Unlocking the Potential of Personal Emails in B2B Signup Flows
Kyle Poyar examines the growing dominance of personal email addresses in B2B signup flows, especially among AI-native products. Based on conversations with growth leaders, he argues that what many GTM teams treat as low-quality leads may actually represent a major untapped pipeline opportunity.
75 to 98 Percent of AI Signups Use Personal Emails: AI-native tools report that 75 to 90 percent of signups come from personal emails, with bolt.new reaching 98 percent. Even traditionally work-oriented categories like AI product management and AI coding apps see rates between 75 and 83 percent.
55 Percent NA Enrichment, 45 Percent Global, 95 Percent Accuracy: North America-focused companies can enrich about 55 percent of personal emails, while global companies see closer to 45 percent. When enrichment is successful, accuracy typically exceeds 95 percent.
3 Drivers Behind the Surge: Poyar highlights three structural shifts. Teams experiment with AI outside procurement processes, consumer-to-work adoption is accelerating as seen with ChatGPT, and social logins like Google and GitHub make one-click signup with personal emails frictionless.
✈️ KEY TAKEAWAYS
Personal emails now dominate AI product signups, often exceeding 75 percent. While many GTM teams ignore them, improving enrichment rates and high accuracy levels suggest these leads can be converted into meaningful pipeline if companies invest in proper de-anonymization workflows.
Do Distributed VC Partnerships Generate More Alpha?
Dan Gray analyzes whether geographic concentration in VC still drives performance, or whether distributed partnerships may now have an edge. Drawing on multiple academic studies across the US, Europe, and China, he argues that non-local investing, syndication, and connectivity increasingly outperform proximity.
28,434 Deals Show 17% Non-Local vs 14.5% Local Success: A study covering 28,434 investments across 2,039 VC firms finds that local deals in a firm’s main office region succeed at 14.5%, while branch and non-local investments succeed at roughly 17%. Hub-based firms show a 4.4 percentage point overall edge, but most of that advantage comes from non-local deals.
3 States Control 70% of Firms, 80% of Capital: More than half of US VC offices sit in San Francisco, Boston, and New York, with California alone accounting for over 50% of firms and 64% of capital. Adding New York and Massachusetts means three states contain over 70% of firms deploying 80% of capital, despite evidence that top deployment hubs do not always generate the highest MOIC.
11,017 US Deals and 402 Chinese Firms Highlight Connectivity Effects: Research on 11,017 US investments shows syndicate size and investor experience increase geographic reach. A 2025 study of 402 Chinese firms finds high-speed rail connectivity between VCs and portfolio companies improves innovation outcomes, especially in early-stage and emerging sectors.
✈️ KEY TAKEAWAYS
Across multiple datasets, non-local investments often outperform local ones, and connectivity appears more important than proximity. As boom-era advantages of dense hub centrality fade, distributed VC models with broader deal flow and higher selectivity may hold structural advantages in a more polycentric market.
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How Large Should Finance Teams Be in 2026?
In a recent post, Matt Schulman analyzes benchmark data from over 2,000 companies to determine whether ultra-lean finance teams, like Apple’s, are becoming the norm. Using Pave’s dataset, he compares finance headcount as a percentage of total employees across private and public companies.
2.6% to 6.0% of Headcount in Private Companies with 100+ Employees: Private companies with over 100 employees allocate between 2.6 and 6.0 percent of total headcount to finance. In the dataset, a 1,000 person private company has a median finance team of 39 employees, which equals 3.9 percent of FTEs.
3.5% to 7.7% of Headcount in Public Companies: Public companies show a higher range, between 3.5 and 7.7 percent of total headcount. This suggests additional reporting and compliance requirements drive proportionally larger finance teams.
Apple Runs $230B Cash with 7 People, IR Team of 2: Apple’s CFO highlights an IR team of two and a seven person group managing 230 billion dollars in cash. Compared to market benchmarks, Apple operates at a fraction of typical finance team ratios.
✈️ KEY TAKEAWAYS
Benchmark data shows that most companies dedicate between 2.6 and 7.7 percent of headcount to finance, with public companies skewing higher. Apple stands out as a significant outlier, which raises the question of whether AI and tooling will gradually compress finance team ratios or whether most organizations still require traditional staffing levels.
The State of Pre-Seed
Drawing on a recent Carta report, Peter Walker summarizes trends in the US pre-seed market using data from more than 330,000 SAFEs and Notes signed since January 2021. The analysis highlights fewer deals, structural shifts in deal terms, and a broader geographic and sector spread of founders.
Fewer Deals in 2025, 330,000+ SAFEs and Notes Analyzed: In 2025, fewer SAFEs were signed compared to 2024, yet total invested capital remained effectively flat. The data suggests more concentrated bets into fewer companies at the earliest stage.
Over 50% of Sub-$4M Rounds Use SAFEs, 2/3 Val Cap Only, 9/10 Post-Money: Convertible instruments now account for more than half of all capital raised in rounds below $4M. Valuation cap only SAFEs represent about two thirds of the market, and nearly 9 out of 10 SAFEs are post-money structures.
Pre-Seed Raised Across 100s of US Cities, Hardware #2 and Biotech #3: Pre-seed rounds are taking place across hundreds of US cities, not just major hubs. By industry, hardware ranks second behind general SaaS, and biotech comes in third, signaling growing interest beyond pure software.
✈️ KEY TAKEAWAYS
US pre-seed activity in 2025 shows fewer but larger concentrated bets, increasing dominance of post-money, valuation-cap-only SAFEs, and broader geographic and sector diversification. Early-stage capital is spreading beyond traditional hubs while deal structures continue to standardize around convertible instruments.
The Rise of Secondaries in Venture Exits
Tomasz Tunguz highlights that venture liquidity is no longer driven primarily by IPOs. In his post, he shows that secondary markets now account for nearly a third of exit value, offering founders, GPs, and LPs alternative ways to access capital while companies remain private.
Secondary Growth Over the Last Decade: In 2015, secondaries made up just 3% of exit value. Today they claim 31%, totaling nearly $95 billion in the trailing twelve months. Wall Street’s acquisitions of Industry Ventures, EquityZen, and Forge Global underscore the structural shift toward secondary liquidity.
Unicorn Backlog and IPO Constraints: With 830 unicorns holding $3.9 trillion in post-money valuation, relying solely on IPOs is impractical. At 2025’s pace of 48 VC-backed IPOs per year, it would take seventeen years to clear the backlog. Secondaries act as a release valve for this growing pressure.
Market Concentration and Opportunity: Secondary liquidity currently focuses on top names like SpaceX, Stripe, and OpenAI. Broader adoption depends on buyers underwriting positions in lesser-known companies, creating opportunities for investors willing to fill the coverage gap.
✈️ KEY TAKEAWAYS
Secondary markets have evolved from a niche footnote to a core part of venture infrastructure, enabling liquidity where traditional exits are insufficient and offering new opportunities for both investors and private company stakeholders.
Thanks to Lea Winkler for her help with this post.
Stay driven,
Andre
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