Most data for today's episode was provided by our partner Multiples.vc, your go-to source for verified M&A valuation multiples and public comps based on analyst estimates, at a fraction of the price of legacy data providers.

With this monthly format, we aim to unify market & valuation data into a single episode, so you don't need to check various sources for a complete picture. Here's what we'll cover today:

#1 Markets

#2 Multiples

We have a lot on the agenda, so let's jump in 👇

The ceasefire signed in June did not survive July.

The US reimposed oil sanctions on Iran on July 7, giving buyers until July 17 to unwind existing transactions.

Brent fell below $70 a barrel on July 1 as the Strait reopening eased the supply crunch, spiked above $86 by mid-July as hostilities resumed, and is trading around $80 to $83 as of July 17.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,458 and the Nasdaq at 25,520 on July 17, the latter down 1.40% on a semiconductor selloff tied to AI infrastructure spending concerns. The S&P posted a 9.6% gain in H1 2026.

The macro environment heading into H2 is higher rates, higher oil, and a conflict with no visible offramp.

SpaceX is gone as it is now public. The position it held at #1 for years is vacant. Anthropic steps into it.

Anthropic is now the most valuable private company in the world at an estimated $965B, unchanged from June. OpenAI holds at #2 at $852B. Tether at #3 at $500B. ByteDance at #4 at $330B. xAI at #5 at $230B.

Ant Group moves to #6 at $182B, but down from $210B in June. Stripe (#7, $159B), Databricks (#8, $134B), and Waymo (#9, $126B) are stable. Reliance Retail enters at #10 at $101B, the first non-AI, non-fintech name to break into the top 10 since this table began tracking.

The private mega-cap market is concentrating further.

Here’s our 2026 IPO list based on rumours, plans, and status quo of their operations:

SpaceX (#46) is off the list. It is public. The rest of the list is unchanged from June.

Anthropic (#4) and OpenAI (#31) have both filed confidential S-1s with no timing given.

Databricks (#14) remains private; CEO Ghodsi said in June it would be a "terrible year" to go public.

Canva (#10) is targeting 2027. Revolut (#40) is pointing to 2028. Stripe (#47) remains profitable, liquid via secondaries, and in no rush.

For everyone else on the list, M&A remains the more realistic near-term exit.

YTD deal value reached $2.2T through July, up from $2.1T through June.

Average deal size pulls back to $265M from $270M in June, still the highest figure in the dataset going back to 2015.

The market is doing fewer transactions at larger average sizes. That pattern has not changed.

The composition of July's top 10 is markedly different from June. The standout transactions span industrial services, healthcare, clean technology, infrastructure, and cybersecurity.

The Top 10 largest deals median is $4,038M EV at 4.7x revenue and 12.7x EBITDA, compared to $14,100M EV at 1.7x revenue and 7.9x EBITDA in June.

Deal sizes are smaller and revenue multiples are higher, driven by a shift toward industrial, healthcare, and infrastructure transactions.

Intertek, acquired by EQT at $12,400M (26.8x revenue, 12.7x EBITDA), leads by deal size. Apogee Therapeutics, acquired by AbbVie at $10,900M, follows with no revenue multiple disclosed.

Intertek (26.8x) and Dragos, acquired by Accenture at $4,175M (20.1x revenue), are the only names clearing above 10x revenue. Modular, acquired by Qualcomm at $3,900M, is the only AI name in the table, with no revenue multiple disclosed.

The top 10 by EV/Revenue median is 6.7x, down from 18x in June. The AI premium is concentrated at the very top of the table and well above the market clearing price.

Deductive, acquired by Elastic at 85.0x ($85M EV), leads as a Pure-Play AI Software deal, the highest multiple in the dataset.

Deductive (85.0x), 1895 Bancorp of Wisconsin (27.9x), Intertek (26.8x), and Dragos (20.1x) are the four names clearing double-digit revenue multiples, with a median of 6.7x across the full top 10. The overall last-30-days market median holds at 3.0x revenue.

Compared to June, the top three names re-rated sharply upward while the rest of the Top 10 compressed, producing a lower average and median with a more concentrated premium at the very top.

Let's start with a snapshot of top companies based on EV/NTM Revenue multiples. For all analysis below, we exclude companies with market caps below $1B and non-meaningful multiples above 100x.

The Top 10 average moves to 16.8x and median to 13.1x, down from 19.0x average and 16.7x median in June. The overall market median ticks up to 2.3x from 2.2x.

In short: the top three re-rated materially, positions four through ten compressed, and the average fell as a result.

Palantir holds at 32.7x (54% growth, 87% gross margin, 61% EBITDA margin).

CrowdStrike jumps to 31.2x from 26.5x. Cloudflare jumps to 29.7x from 24.8x. The top three now form a cluster between 29x and 33x that was not present in June.

AppLovin pulls back to 15.3x on 89% gross margin and 85% EBITDA margin, the most efficient business in the cohort.

Snowflake (13.7x), TechnologyOne (12.5x), Shopify (9.5x), SoundHound (9.2x, -16% EBITDA margin), MongoDB (7.5x), and Guidewire (7.3x) complete the table.

The Top 10 average EBITDA margin pulls back to 31% from 44% in June. The gap with the broad market remains wide.

Below is the EV/NTM Revenue trendline, the top 50 list, the multiples split by sector, and the efficiency benchmarks.

Three names broke away from the pack this month. Everything else held still 👇