Most data for today's episode was provided by our partner Multiples.vc, your go-to source for verified M&A valuation multiples and public comps based on analyst estimates, at a fraction of the price of legacy data providers.

With this monthly format, we aim to unify market & valuation data into a single episode, so you don't need to check various sources for a complete picture. Here's what we'll cover today:

#1 Markets

#2 Multiples

We have a lot on the agenda, so let's jump in 👇

In May, the Iran ceasefire was unsigned and Brent was at $103. In June, both changed.

On June 17, the US and Iranian presidents signed the Islamabad Memorandum at the Palace of Versailles during the G7 Summit, initiating a 60-day nuclear talks window.

Brent collapsed to approximately $80, erasing nearly all of the war premium built since February.

The S&P 500 reached approximately 7,500 and the Nasdaq topped 26,500, continuing the climb from May's S&P record of 7,412.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50-3.75% in his first FOMC meeting, but nine of 18 officials signaled at least one rate hike by end of 2026.

Markets sold off briefly on the hawkish signal before recovering on Iran deal optimism.

The table finally moved.

SpaceX went public on June 12 under SPCX, raised $85.7B in the largest IPO in history, and closed day one above $2.1T market cap. Four days later, SpaceX agreed to acquire AI coding startup Cursor for $60B in an all-stock deal, the largest VC-backed acquisition ever recorded.

Now that SpaceX went public, Anthropic is the highest valued private market company at an estimated $965B, overtaking OpenAI ($852B) for the first time. It also filed a confidential IPO prospectus. No timing given.

Tether followed OpenAI at $500B valuation. A stablecoin issuer now ranks above ByteDance. That is a sentence worth reading twice.

ByteDance ($330B), Ant Group ($210B), Stripe ($159B), Databricks ($134B), and Waymo ($126B) are stable.

Here’s our 2026 IPO list based on rumours, plans, and status quo of their operations:

The list is largely unchanged from May. But the status of several names has shifted.

SpaceX (#46) is done and is now the sixth most valuable US-listed firm. It then used its freshly minted public stock to acquire Cursor for $60B four days later. Fastest IPO-to-acquisition window in recent memory.

Anthropic (#4) filed its confidential IPO prospectus in June with no timing given. At an estimated $965B secondary valuation, it would be the largest software IPO in history if it prices at that level.

OpenAI (#31) filed its confidential S-1 on June 8, one week after Anthropic. The company announced it themselves: "We expect it to leak so we're just announcing it. We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while." No listing date is set.

Databricks (#14) remains private with no S-1 filed. CEO Ali Ghodsi said in early June it would be a "terrible year" to go public given the crowded IPO calendar, effectively deferring to 2027. It remains the most profitable name in the pipeline at a $134B valuation with $5.4B in annualised revenue growing 65% year on year.

Canva (#10) is targeting 2027. COO Cliff Obrecht confirmed in April: "We want to make sure the evolution of this business model is really bedded in so we're not having to explain ourselves to the market through a transitional period." Revolut (#40) has not filed; CEO Storonsky pointed to 2028 at the earliest. Stripe (#47) remains profitable, liquid via secondaries, and in no rush.

For everyone else on the list, M&A remains the more realistic near-term exit.

M&A average deal size rose to $270M in June, up from $260M in May and the highest in the dataset going back to 2015.

YTD deal value reached approximately $2.1T, up from $1.7T through May.

The trend holds: fewer transactions, at materially larger sizes.

The top 10 largest deals median is $14.1B EV at 1.7x revenue and 7.9x EBITDA, compared to $14.5B EV at 3.6x revenue in May. Deal sizes are similar but revenue multiples are more disciplined this month.

Equity Residential, acquired by AvalonBay Communities at $69B (11.2x revenue, 16.4x EBITDA). The largest deal by EV in the table, and a signal that large-scale residential assets are clearing at multiples historically reserved for regulated infrastructure.

Cursor, acquired by SpaceX at $60B (15x revenue), is the deal most of you reading this have a personal opinion on. If you're using it to write code today, you now work with a SpaceX tool. The acquisition closes Q3, pending regulatory approval.

The top 10 by EV/Revenue median is 18x, up from 14.8x in May. AI software is commanding a higher premium month on month.

MaintainX, acquired by Autodesk at 26.7x ($3.6B), and StackAI, acquired by Asana at 25.0x ($75M), lead the table. Cursor at 15.0x appears in both the largest-by-EV and the highest-by-multiple tables.

Strategic acquirers are paying 15x-plus for AI capability rather than compete later.

Compared to May, multiples are slightly down at the top end while the overall market holds near its post-2022 floor.

Let's start with a snapshot of top companies based on EV/NTM Revenue multiples. For all analysis below, we exclude companies with market caps below $1B and non-meaningful multiples above 100x.

The Top 10 average slightly decreases to 19.0x and median rises to 16.7x in June, compared to 19.3x average and 16.3x median in May. The index is essentially flat month on month, with composition changes beneath the surface.

In short: no broad re-rating in June, but the cohort quietly strengthened on quality metrics.

Palantir leads at 32.1x, down from 35.3x in May, on 56% revenue growth, 87% gross margin, and 61% EBITDA margin. CrowdStrike (26.5x) and Cloudflare (24.8x) are essentially flat.

Palo Alto Networks enters at 17.3x (21% growth, 76% gross margin, 31% EBITDA margin). AppLovin holds at 16.9x on 89% gross margin and 85% EBITDA margin, the most efficient business in the cohort.

Cadence (16.5x), Datadog (15.9x), Verisign (14.0x), JFrog (13.6x), and TechnologyOne (12.7x) round out the table.

The Top 10 average EBITDA margin rises to 44%, up from 38% in May.

The overall market median ticks down to 1.8x from 1.9x in May. The top end is holding and getting more profitable. The gap with the broad market is not closing.

Below is the EV/NTM Revenue trendline, the top 50 list, the multiples split by sector, and the efficiency benchmarks.

Hardware just posted its biggest month-on-month jump in this dataset. 👇