👋 Hi, I’m Andre and welcome to my newsletter Data Driven VC which is all about becoming a better investor with Data & AI. Join 35k+ thought leaders from VCs like a16z, Accel, Index, Sequoia, and more to understand how startup investing becomes more data-driven, why it matters, and what it means for you.
Brought to you by FORESIGHT - The End-to-End Data Platform for Investors
You had the best intentions when you bought all those data sources like Crunchbase, Dealroom, Pitchbook, and Harmonic. You thought everything gets logged with that powerful CRM called Affinity. You wanted to connect it all to ChatGPT and start asking questions.
But then you realized that you’re missing the middle layer between your data and your LLM that connects the data siloes, eliminates the duplicates, and normalizes the data swamp.
This is why you need an “entity resolution” data infrastructure, aka the glue. But do you build it or buy it?
The Top Metrics for Consumer Businesses
CJ Gustafson at MostlyMetrics highlights why consumer metrics diverge from B2B and which ones matter most, using data from companies like Airbnb, Spotify, Pinterest, and Roblox. The piece emphasizes funnel health, active user counts, and the balance between organic and paid growth as critical signals for long-term durability.
Funnel Health and Acquisition Mix: Pinterest, Headspace, and Airbnb illustrate strong organic acquisition channels, while heavy reliance on paid is flagged as a red flag. Investors like John Connolly see acquisition mix as the single most important indicator of consumer business resilience.
Monthly Active Users (MAUs): Pinterest reported 537 million MAUs in Q3 2024, up 11% year-over-year, and Spotify reached 678 million MAUs in Q4 2024, up 12%. MAUs highlight audience scale but must be paired with monetization metrics to capture real business health.
Daily Active Users (DAUs): Snap had 453 million DAUs in Q4 2024 (9% growth) and Roblox hit 85.3 million (19% growth). The DAU/MAU ratio, or stickiness, is a more meaningful measure of engagement than either number in isolation.
Peloton’s MAU numbers as an example of measuring their success
✈️ KEY TAKEAWAYS
Consumer businesses live or die by their ability to generate organic growth, retain daily engagement, and monetize large active user bases. MAU and DAU growth impress on earnings calls, but the true differentiator is how efficiently platforms convert attention into sustainable economics.
How to Plan Headcount
Carta released a fresh 2025 guide on how startups can use headcount planning not just as a budgeting exercise but as a strategic tool to manage equity, align with business goals, and build investor confidence. The article emphasizes the dual cost of hires (cash and equity)and guides forecasting, modeling, and avoiding common pitfalls.
Equity and Ownership Impact: Hiring decisions affect not just salaries but also dilution. Carta notes that every equity grant reshapes the cap table, making equity management central to long-term planning and investor readiness.
Retention and Strategic Alignment: By March 2025, only 65% of employees hired in 2023 and 84% from 2024 remained in-role. This turnover underscores why each role must be tied directly to milestones such as product launches, ARR growth, or compliance needs.
Forecasting and True Cost Modeling: Effective planning requires forecasting staffing needs 12–18 months ahead and modeling both salary and equity dilution. Carta’s tools aim to show the full ownership cost of each hire in real time, reducing risk and supporting board alignment.
✈️ KEY TAKEAWAYS
A headcount plan is a strategic roadmap that links hiring to business outcomes while managing the financial and equity costs of growth. Startups that forecast thoroughly, align hires to milestones, and model dilution build stronger investor confidence and reduce the risk of reactive, costly decisions.
