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Welcome to another Data Driven VC “Insights” episode where we cover the most interesting research and reports about startups, VCs, LPs, AI & automation.
How the Top 5% of VCs Keep Winning
A new NBER paper from Blake Jackson and Ilya Strebulaev tracks 100,000+ U.S. venture professionals, with its profit-concentration stats drawn from a subsample of 12,151 VCs with complete data.
Profit Concentration: The top 1% of VCs (about 120 VCs) earned 56.6% of the $1.2 trillion in net profits. The top 5% (about 600 VCs) earned 90.1%.
Track Record Compounds: A VC with five or more prior successful investments is 6.7 percentage points more likely to succeed on their next deal, a 47% lift over the sample average.
The Midas List Effect: VCs who unexpectedly made the Forbes Midas List invested $6M more per year and earned $62M more in gross profits on new investments. The boost applied only to new deals, not their existing portfolio, which the authors take as evidence of improved access to deals rather than new resources flowing to the VC generally.
✈️ KEY TAKEAWAYS
Track record is one of the strongest predictors of a VC's own lifetime profits, but it doesn't predict a fund's net IRR or TVPI (the returns LPs actually receive). Public recognition (the Midas List effect above) drives individual deal access and profits, though its effect on fund-level returns isn't tested. Use this as a diligence checklist on the individual GP, separate from diligence on the fund's likely returns.
Time Between Funding Rounds
Peter Walker at Carta shared an analysis of 14,333 priced primary rounds raised by US startups between January 2017 and June 2026.
Current Medians: Medians now run 1.9 years Seed to Series A, 2.3 years A to B, and 2.2 years B to C, roughly in line with the standard "18-24 month" assumption at first but stretching past it in later rounds.
Variance Beneath the Median: Some founders raise two or three rounds in 2026 alone; others go three years or more without one. Walker's takeaway: could your company survive 1,000 days without outside capital?
Existing Investors Won't Automatically Join a Bridge: The analysis covers priced primary rounds only; bridges and note extensions fall outside these medians. Walker cautions founders not to assume current investors will join a bridge automatically.
✈️ KEY TAKEAWAYS
Runway planning should assume the longer end of this range, since falling short means running out of cash. Start bridge conversations early, since existing investors joining is never guaranteed. Building relationships with likely next-round leads ahead of time helps close that gap.
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