💥Fundraising Cheat Sheet, Net New ARR Breakdown, Bridges vs Extensions, Product Org Setups & More
Digesting Insights From the Data
👋 Hi, I’m Andre and welcome to my newsletter Data-Driven VC which is all about becoming a better investor with Data & AI. Join 29,120 thought leaders from VCs like a16z, Accel, Index, Sequoia, and more to understand how startup investing becomes more data-driven, why it matters, and what it means for you.
Brought to you by Harmonic - The Startup Discovery Engine
Harmonic identifies visionary entrepreneurs launching companies before any other provider. By analyzing backgrounds, tracking talent movements, monitoring new filings, and keeping tabs on social media updates, we discover startups 6-12 months ahead of the competition.
Product Org Reporting Lines
Does the Head of Product need a direct line to the CEO to be effective? According to recent data from Pave’s analysis of 2,411 companies, the reporting structure can vary based on a company’s maturity—and there are significant pay benchmarks to consider, too.
At seed stage: For early-stage companies ($0-5M raised), 90% of Heads of Product report directly to the CEO. The emphasis here is on maintaining a product-driven focus.
In later stages: Among mature firms ($500M+ raised), the figure drops slightly to 75%, with more Heads of Product reporting to a CTO or engineering lead. This shift likely reflects larger operational structures and varied leadership expertise.
Compensation insights: Public data shows that Product Management salaries range widely, from $133K for P2-level managers to over $423K for C-level roles, with VPs of Product seeing a median equity stake valued at $2.5M and Chief Product Officers at $6.2M.
✈️ KEY TAKEAWAYS
While direct CEO reporting remains common for product leaders, setups evolve with company growth, often influenced by the CEO’s background and company size.
Fundraising Snapshot: Valuations & Round Sizes
As the fall fundraising season is already in full swing, founders can use updated data by Carta on valuations and round sizes for software startups raising capital since June 1. Here’s a snapshot across stages to inform your investor negotiations.
Pre-Seed Snapshot: With post-money SAFEs, median valuations are around $11M, while typical raise sizes sit at $1.2M. The pre-seed segment remains highly active.
Seed Rounds Rebound: Seed stage deals see $3.7M raised on a median $14.8M pre-money valuation, echoing the high valuations of 2021, even as deal volume remains lower.
Growth in Series A, B, & C: Series A rounds report $10.8M raises on $43M valuations, though Series B funding has dipped, averaging $22.9M on $116M valuations. Series C rounds are scarce, with median raise sizes at $30M on $258M valuations.
✈️ KEY TAKEAWAYS
Software founders see valuations climbing back to 2021 levels, especially at pre-seed and seed stages, while Series C rounds remain the hardest to secure in this capital climate.
Using Probabilistic Thinking - The Bayesian Founder
In startups, clinging to initial visions often backfires. Wildfire Labs suggests Bayesian thinking, a decision framework based on updating beliefs with new data, as a more structured approach. Here’s how the Bayesian founder operates differently:
Advanced Bayesian Tools: Founders can use decision trees with probabilities, confidence intervals, and market data from adjacent sectors to refine strategies. For example, Uber adjusted strategies using city-based “priors” when expanding internationally.
Avoiding Bayesian Pitfalls: Over-updating based on minimal data can create confusion, while “probability anchoring” can cause founders to under-adjust beliefs. Regular belief checks and balance between metrics and customer insights are critical.